Disaster-development interface and its impact on emerging vulnerability scenario in Ladakh region of northwestern Himalayas.

The Union Territory of Ladakh, located in the northwestern Himalayan region, is highly vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic hazards like earthquakes, landslides, snow avalanches, flash floods, cloud bursts, and border conflicts. Occurrences of these disasters have significantly influenced the development and vulnerability scenario of Trans-Himalayan Ladakh. Findings reveal that despite suffering losses from natural and human-induced disasters, the region has benefited by grabbing the attention of policymakers at the national level. Consequently, long-term developments were positively impacted, reflecting infrastructural upgradation, improved transportation and communication, profoundly improving the socio-economic well-being of the people. Furthermore, post-disaster developments have managed to showcase the unique physiography and adventurous terrains of Ladakh, promoting tourism as the main economic driver in the region. The exponential growth of tourism and associated sectors have influenced the vulnerability scenario, which was quantified using the multi-criterion-based analytical hierarchical processes (AHP) method, indicating an increase in climate change-related vulnerability, followed by socio-cultural, environmental, and physical vulnerabilities. Specifically, the vulnerabilities with respect to flash floods, landslides, erratic rainfall, haphazard constructions, cultural dilution, water crisis, and changes in land use patterns have been exacerbated across the study area. The study highlights the need for effective management of these emerging vulnerabilities through proper planning to ensure long-term sustainable development goals in this environmentally fragile region.