Modeling the emergence of viral resistance for SARS-CoV-2 during treatment with an anti-spike monoclonal antibody.

Monoclonal antibodies have been used as a treatment for SARS-CoV-2. However, viral evolution and development of variants has compromised the use of all currently authorized monoclonal antibodies for SARS-CoV-2. In some individuals treated with one such monoclonal antibody, bamlanivimab, transient nasal viral rebounds of 3-4 logs associated with resistant viral strains occur. To better understand the mechanisms underlying resistance emergence with high viral load rebounds, we developed two different models that incorporate drug sensitive and drug resistant virus as well as target cell replenishment and fit them to data. The models accurately capture the observed viral dynamics as well as the proportion of resistant virus for each studied individual with little variation in model parameters. In the models with best-fit parameters, bamlanivimab selects for resistance mutants that can expand to high levels due to target cell replenishment. The ultimate clearance of virus however depends on the development of adaptive immunity.