Factors that dynamically affect provincial incidences of catastrophic health expenditure among middle-aged and elderly Chinese population-transition of disease financial risk protection from global to local.

In this longitudinal study, we found spatiotemporal non-stationarity among the variable relationships, supporting regional governments' adoption of regional-target policies. First, after the completion of universal health insurance coverage, the spatiotemporal non-stationarity of the prevalence of non-communicable diseases and disability and ageing should be the focus of the next phase of health insurance design, where improvements to compensation coverage and benefit packages are possible policy instruments. Second, the governance and causes of catastrophic health expenditure need to be laid out from a macro perspective rather than only from the individual/household perspective, especially for the potential impact of economic development, air pollution and nursing resources.