Simulation-based evaluation of two insect trapping grids for delimitation surveys.

In the United States of America, delimitation trapping surveys with square grids have been used for decades for exotic insects without rigorous evaluation. We used simulations to investigate the effectiveness of two representative designs: an 8-km grid for Acrolepiopsis assectella (leek moth) and a 14.5-km grid for Ceratitis capitata (Mediterranean fruit fly, "Medfly"). We investigated grid compositions and design factors, measuring performance as the mean probability of pest capture over all traps, p(capture), and designed improved grids for both species. For the standard designs, p(capture) was 0.86 for leek moth and 0.71 for Medfly, with the latter performing better due to greater lure and trap attractiveness. For both designs, 86 percent or more of mean p(capture) came from core area captures. Egress testing indicated that both grids were oversized. An improved grid for leek moths would use 177 traps in a 4.8-km diameter circle, which had mean p(capture) = 0.73 and reduced the cost by 80 percent. The best Medfly grid was a 4.8-km diameter circle with 232 traps, which gave mean p(capture) of 0.66 and reduced the cost by 86 percent. Simulation may be used to improve trapping survey plans, often saving significantly on costs while maintaining survey performance.