The graded multidimensional geometry of phenotypic variation and progression in neurodegenerative syndromes.

Clinical variants of Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal lobar degeneration display a spectrum of cognitive-behavioural changes varying between individuals and over time. Understanding the landscape of these graded individual-/group-level longitudinal variations is critical for precise phenotyping; however, this remains challenging to model. Addressing this challenge, we leverage the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center database to derive a unified geometric framework of graded longitudinal phenotypic variation in Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal lobar degeneration. We included three time-point, cognitive-behavioural and clinical data from 390 typical, atypical and intermediate Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal lobar degeneration variants (114 typical Alzheimer's disease; 107 behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia; 42 motor variants of frontotemporal lobar degeneration; and 103 primary progressive aphasia patients). On this data, we applied advanced data-science approaches to derive low-dimensional geometric spaces capturing core features underpinning clinical progression of Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal lobar degeneration syndromes. To do so, we first used principal component analysis to derive six axes of graded longitudinal phenotypic variation capturing patient-specific movement along and across these axes. Then, we distilled these axes into a visualisable 2D manifold of longitudinal phenotypic variation using Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection. Both geometries together enabled the assimilation and inter-relation of paradigmatic and mixed cases, capturing dynamic individual trajectories, and linking syndromic variability to neuropathology and key clinical end-points such as survival. Through these low-dimensional geometries, we show that (i) specific syndromes (Alzheimer's disease and primary progressive aphasia) converge over time into a de-differentiated pooled phenotype, while others (frontotemporal dementia variants) diverge to look different from this generic phenotype; (ii) phenotypic diversification is predicted by simultaneous progression along multiple axes, varying in a graded manner between individuals and syndromes; and (iii) movement along specific principal axes predicts survival at 36 months in a syndrome-specific manner and in individual pathological groupings. The resultant mapping of dynamics underlying cognitive-behavioural evolution potentially holds paradigm-changing implications to predicting phenotypic diversification and phenotype-neurobiological mapping in Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal lobar degeneration.