Longitudinal Transition Between Regular and Special Education in Autistic Children: Predictors and Policy Effects.

Inclusive education policies stimulate children with special educational needs, including autism, to attend regular education. We aimed to explore change over time in school placement and transitions of autistic children since the introduction of an inclusive education policy in the Netherlands (2014) and to examine the role of individual child characteristics. This study used longitudinal data from 2013 to 2021 on autistic children (N = 1463, aged 5-16 years). We expected an increase in regular school placements and transitions to regular schools. Surprisingly, the proportion of children with autism in regular schools slightly decreased. Special school placement was more likely for boys and autistic children with lower intelligence scores, co-occurring conditions or behavioral and peer relation problems. Younger autistic children and those with lower intelligence scores more often transferred from a regular to a special school. The opposite transition was more common in older autistic children and those with higher intelligence scores. The likelihood of special-to-regular transitions did not change, but regular-to-special transitions were more prevalent during the years just after the policy change than in later years. The inclusive policy had little impact on the school placement, and at most led to a delayed drop in referrals to special schools.