Meta-analysis of the effects of upstream land cover on stream recovery.

Unpredictable or variable ecosystem recovery from disturbance presents a challenge to conservation, particularly as the scale of human disturbance continues to increase. Theory suggests land-cover and disturbance characteristics affect recovery, but individual studies of disturbance and recovery frequently struggle to uncover generalizable patterns because of high levels of site-specific variation. To understand how land-cover, disturbance type, and disturbance duration influence ecosystem recovery, we used studies documenting recovery of 50 streams to perform a global meta-analysis of stream recovery from disturbances that affect water quality (e.g., oil spill, fire, wastewater). We extracted upstream natural and urban land-cover percentages for each site and performed model selection and averaging to identify influences on recovery completeness. Most streams improved following the end of a disturbance (median 240% of disturbed condition) but did not recover fully to baseline predisturbance condition within the studied period (median study period 2 years; median recovery 60% of baseline). Scale of disturbance in time and space did not predict recovery, but sites with higher percentages of upstream natural land cover had less complete recovery relative to sites with more urban or agricultural cover, possibly due to higher baseline conditions in these streams. Our findings suggest impacts to systems with low anthropogenic stress may be more irreversible than impacts to already modified systems. We call for more long-term evaluations of ecosystem response to disturbance and the inclusion of regional references and predisturbance reference conditions for comparison. A more thorough understanding of the role of the surrounding landscape in shaping stream response to disturbance can help managers calibrate expectations for recovery and prioritize protection.