Resilient or Vulnerable? Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Mental Health of Refugees in Germany.

Even though the COVID-19 pandemic had consequences for the whole society, like during most crises, some population groups tended to be disproportionally affected. We rely on the most recent data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees to explore the resilience or vulnerability of refugees in the face of the pandemic. As the 2020 wave of the survey was in the field when the second nationwide lockdown started in December, we are able to apply a regression discontinuity design to analyze how refugees in Germany are coping with these measures. Our results reveal a negative effect of the lockdown on refugees' life satisfaction. Male refugees and those with a weaker support system face stronger negative outcomes than their counterparts. Since mental health is an important prerequisite for all forms of integration, understanding the related psychological needs in times of crisis can be highly important for policymakers and other stakeholders.