Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.

Thibaut JombartKevin van ZandvoortTimothy W RussellChristopher I JarvisAmy GimmaSam AbbottSam CliffordSebastian FunkHamish GibbsYang LiuCarl A B PearsonNikos I Bossenull nullRosalind M EggoAdam J KucharskiW John Edmunds

Published in: Wellcome open research (2020)

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

Keyphrases

coronavirus disease
sars cov
social media
health information
emergency department
electronic health record