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Policy analysis indicates health-sensitive trade and subsidy reforms are needed in the UK to avoid adverse dietary health impacts post-Brexit.

Florian FreundMarco Springmann
Published in: Nature food (2021)
The United Kingdom's food system will be greatly impacted by Brexit-related trade deals and policy developments-with implications for dietary risk factors and public health. Here we use an integrated economic-health modelling framework to analyse the impacts of different policy approaches to Brexit. A 'soft Brexit' that is in line with the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement increases diet-related mortality in the United Kingdom as costs for health-promoting and import-dependent foods increase and their consumption decreases. Negotiating free-trade agreements with the United States and Commonwealth countries as part of a 'global Britain' approach could triple the negative health impacts of Brexit as greater availability of energy-dense foods increases weight-related risks without meaningfully reducing dietary risks. Eliminating import tariffs on health-sensitive horticultural products could mitigate the negative health impacts of Brexit, and reforming agricultural subsidies to incentivize greater domestic horticultural production could lead to net health gains. Combining these health-sensitive approaches to trade policy and subsidy reform doubled the health gains, offering a promising approach for mitigating the detrimental impacts Brexit could have on dietary health in the United Kingdom.
Keyphrases
  • public health
  • healthcare
  • mental health
  • risk factors
  • health information
  • human health
  • type diabetes
  • global health
  • physical activity
  • body mass index
  • drug induced