Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential.
Nuno Rodrigues FariaMoritz U G KraemerSarah Catherine HillJaqueline Góes de JesusRenato Santana de AguiarFelipe Campos de Melo IaniJoilson XavierJ QuickLouis du PlessisSimon DellicourJ ThézéR D O CarvalhoGuy BaeleC-H WuP P SilveiraM B ArrudaM A PereiraG C PereiraPaul S WikramaratnaU ObolskiLeandro AbadeT I VasylyevaM GiovanettiD YiDaniel J WeissG R William WintF M ShearerSebastian FunkB NikolayVagner FonsecaTalita Émile Ribeiro AdelinoM A A OliveiraM V F SilvaLívia SacchettoP O FigueiredoIzabela Maurício de RezendeÉrica Munhoz de MelloR F C SaidD A SantosMarcela Lencine FerrazM G BritoL F SantanaMariane Talon de MenezesRodrigo M BrindeiroAmilcar TanuriF C P Dos SantosM S CunhaJ S NogueiraI M RoccoAntonio Charlys da CostaShirley Vasconcelos KomninakisVasco Ariston de Carvalho AzevedoA O ChieppeE S M AraujoM C L MendonçaC C Dos SantosC D Dos SantosA M Mares-GuiaR M R NogueiraPatricia C de SequeiraRicardo Gadelha de AbreuMárcio Henrique de Oliveira GarciaA L AbreuO OkumotoErna Geessien KroonC F C de AlbuquerqueK LewandowskiS T PullanM CarrollT de OliveiraEster Cerdeira SabinoR P SouzaMarc A SuchardPhilippe LemeyG S TrindadeB P DrumondA M B FilippisN J LomanS CauchemezLuiz Carlos Junior AlcantaraOliver George PybusPublished in: Science (New York, N.Y.) (2018)
The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes species mosquitos highlights a need to monitor the risk of reestablishment of urban YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial, and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age and sex distribution of human cases is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission and spatial expansion toward previously YFV-free areas, followed by a rise in viral spillover to humans in late 2016. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real time that will contribute to a global strategy to eliminate future YFV epidemics.